ハンガリーの銀行改革とユーロの導入

Abstract

ハンガリーは、過去の十数年間銀行システムの根本的再生を行い、不良債権処理や外資による民営化を経て、ユーロ導入の入口まで辿り着いたのである。2004年5月にEUへ加盟しても、ユーロ導入に必要な財政と為替相場の安定性に関する条件の本格化は次の課題となっている。2001年からハンガリーはEUの共通通貨システム、ERM2を受け入れ、バンド型変動相場制を導入した。将来的には、インフレ・ターゲットをどう達成するか、財政赤字削減と為替レートの安定をどう実現するかを本論文は考察する。

Together with 10 newly accepted countries, from May 2004 Hungary became full member of the EU. Thus, the more than decade long process of system transformation has arrived to a decisive milestone : Hungary finally got integrated into the West. Hungary has successfully completed the sophisticated adjustment to the EU-rules（acquis communautaire） to become eligible for full membership. However, there are still a few years ahead to introduce the Euro, for which a relative stability of the budget and the currency exchange rate is stipulated as condition. The paper discusses the reform of the banking sector after the socialist era, the problem of bad loans and the ways of their consolidation. As a result, Hungarian banks were capitalized up to the internationally accepted normative of the BIS and their privatization through Western banks brought a dramatic improvement in their business performance. Hungary's banking at present is fully compatible with the West and the MNB（Hungarian National Bank）is now applying an exchange rate system in compliance with the EMU. In addition to the formal rate mechanism, a relevant adjustment between the exchange rate's stability and the budget deficit must be accomplished, so that the Euro could be introduced in a few years.